Mid-Year Predictions for the Second Half of 2021

At the start of the new year and in the spirit of planning, the thought leaders at GGA Partners sat down to predict what we believed to be coming throughout the year and shared our 2021 Predictions on the Shape of the Next Normal. Now, halfway through 2021 with the spring season in the books and summer underway, we reconvened GGA leaders for a mid-year check-in on predictions for the latter half of the year.

1. Ensuring fair and equitable access to amenities remains top of mind, especially on the golf course

A trending topic throughout the industry is golf’s demand surge and how long it will sustain, much has been written on this point and those who are closely watching rounds played metrics anticipate a clearer reading by the end of the summer.

Stephen Johnston, GGA’s founding partner, expects that private clubs will see the surge continue to elevate rounds played by members which will likely increase issues relating to compaction of tee traffic and accessibility.  He predicts the benchmark regarding average number of rounds per member to be higher by approximately 10% following the pandemic and also increased golf course utilization by members’ spouses and family members.  Both factors will create a greater demand for tee times at private clubs.

Johnston believes some clubs may need to consider permitting round play by fivesomes instead of foursomes, potentially catalyzing logistical challenges such as a greater need for single-rider power carts in order to maintain speed of play at the same rate as foursomes with all players using power carts. For club managers and course operators, this entails an increased need for current and detailed evaluation of the benefits of membership and the relationship between playing privileges and the practical ability to book a tee time and get on-course.

2. Effective demand management is key and will shift from agile, flexible approaches to new operating standards as demand stabilizes

During the pandemic and throughout 2020, many golf, club, and leisure businesses recognized the increased need to more accurately and routinely measure the utilization of amenities, adapting operations management to react quickly to change.

Craig Johnston, head of GGA’s transaction advisory practice, anticipates an evolution in this one-day-at-a-time, agile monitoring approach into a new and more formalized standard of operating procedures.  “At the start of 2021, we said we would see clubs provide flexibility and experiment with various operational changes,” he explained.  “With the pandemic feeling like it’s steadily moving toward the rear-view mirror, members will be expecting clubs to begin instituting the ‘new normal’ operations and the data compiled by clubs in the first half of the year will be critical to deciding on the new normal.”

Johnston believes that membership demand will continue to be strong through the second half of the year and that it is likely utilization will reduce marginally as members begin travelling again for work and social obligations.  Even with a marginal reduction in utilization, demand for private club services will remain strong and will continue to put pressure on capacity and access in most clubs.

Senior Partner Henry DeLozier encourages club and facility operators to embrace short-term continuations of high demand while keeping an eye on the future and the non-zero probability of a demand shift in the coming years.  “Clubs must create pathways to sustain demand while navigating utilization volume.  It is unwise to place hard or irreversible limitations on capacity while clubs are at historic maximums for demand and usage,” cautioned DeLozier. “Clubs will do well to establish a clear understanding of demand and utilization to enable innovative programs which serve to fill periods of low demand in the future.”

3. Ongoing uncertainty about the pandemic’s long-term impact on club finances will increase the review and reevaluation of club financial projections to ensure sustained budget flexibility

While data regarding utilization, participation, and engagement throughout the summer months continues to be captured and consolidated, business leaders should not delay their financial planning and instead get to work on reevaluating finances and updating their future forecasts.

“Now is the time to review, evaluate, and reset club debt levels,” emphasized Henry DeLozier. “Clubs need to recast financial projections based upon elevated joining/initiation fees arising from high demand.”

In support of alacrity in financial planning, DeLozier notes that labor shortages spurred by the pandemic will increase payroll-related costs at a material level. He also predicts that comprehensive risk review is needed at most clubs to evaluate possible impacts arising from cyber-crime and/or declining club revenues during 2022.

Beyond internal shake-ups in utilization or operations, club leaders should be anticipating external impacts that could impact their financial plans.  A hypothetical example raised by DeLozier is if the U.S. economy were to become more inflationary.  In such a circumstance he believes clubs would see an increase in the costs of labor and supplies which would necessitate increases in member dues and fees, a deceleration of new-member enrollments as consumer confidence dips, and a slight slow-down in housing demand.

Right now, uncertainty remains with respect to the virus as well as the resulting economic impact from the pandemic. From a financial standpoint, clubs will do well to advance their forward planning while retaining budget elasticity.  “It will be imperative for clubs and boards to build flexibility into their budgets and agility into their operations,” added Craig Johnston.

4. Existing governance practices, policies, and procedures will be revisited, refurbished, and reinvigorated

A litany of new ways of operating and governing the club arose as a result of the pandemic, some of which suggest an efficacy that can be sustained in a post-pandemic environment.  Essential to assimilating these adaptions into new standards of procedure is a review of existing governance practices and the documentation which supports them.

“At a time when boards can measure the full range of financial performance metrics, updating club governing documents is a primary board responsibility,” noted Henry DeLozier.  “Board room succession planning must be formalized to prepare clubs for the inevitable downturn from record high utilization.”

In considering the nearly overnight adoption of technology tools to enable remote meetings and board-level deliberations, partner Michael Gregory noted a substantial increase in the use of technology tools that go beyond virtual Zoom meetings.  “The pandemic has allowed clubs to test online voting,” he explained.  “For many clubs, once things return to normal, their bylaws won’t allow for the continued execution of online voting unless they make changes.”

“We have seen the adoption and implementation of online voting to be a huge success for the clubs who have tried it for the first time,” said Gregory. “Members love it, it’s easy, it’s convenient, it leads to higher participation from the membership, and many clubs are in the process of changing their governing documents to allow for online voting as a result.”  The challenges and opportunities of employing online voting are detailed in our piece on taking club elections digital, which features a downloadable resource that can be shared among club boards.

5. In human resources, expect to see deeper reevaluations of compensation structures and employee value propositions

Weighing in from across the pond, Rob Hill, partner and managing director of GGA’s EMEA office in Dublin, predicts that club leaders will face bigger challenges in human resources throughout the remainder of 2021.

The first of three particular items he called out is a reevaluation of compensation.  “Making decisions about employee pay is among the biggest challenges facing club leaders in the wake of the coronavirus shutdown,” stated Hill. “As they begin compensation planning for the rest of the year and into 2022, these leaders not only have to consider pay levels, but also the suitability of their mission and operating model to thrive in a post-pandemic world.”

Citing his recent experiences in the European market, Hill shared that club leaders are challenged with finding new ways to operate smarter and more efficiently, while also looking for innovative ways to implement sturdy, low-cost solutions that their employees will love.  Which leads to his second point, that there will be a renewed emphasis on what employees love and how clubs, as employers, can provide an enhanced value proposition for their employees.

“As employees get back to work onsite, employers are finding that what their people value from the employment relationship has changed,” Hill explained.  “Where pay has been viewed as largely transactional in the past, clubs may need to provide new types of benefits, especially programs that provide more flexibility, financial security, and empowerment to retain and motivate their people.”

Lastly, there is likely to be considerable movement of talent over the coming year brought on by employees’ new work-life ambitions and financial imperatives, said Hill, “As demand for their skills and experience grows, the very best talent will seek out employers that demonstrate they view employees not as costs but as assets and reflect this in their approach to compensation.”

Recalling our start-of-year prediction that the movement of people and relocation of companies will reshape markets, partner Craig Johnston added, “The relocation of people continues to be a prominent trend and one that is likely to continue in the second half of the year.”  For club employers, it’s not just the changing physical locations which impact the cost and supply of labor, but also the expectations of employees as they seek out competitive new roles and work experiences.

6. The repurposing and reimagining of club facilities, amenities, and member-use areas will continue

The pandemic pushed to the fore the need for clubs to adapt their facilities to match changes in the ways members use and enjoy their clubs.  A combination of practical evolutions for health and safety and circumstantial evolutions drawn from widespread ability for members to work remotely created increased desire for clubs to offer more casual outdoor dining options and spaces to enable members to conduct work while at the club.

Partner Stephen Johnston believes these sentiments will continue to near-term facility improvements at clubs.  “With more flexibility in the workplace and members working from home periodically, there will be a need at the club for members to do work or take calls before their tee time or their lunch date,” he said.  “It has been evident for some time that members generally prefer to enjoy outdoor dining and since, throughout the pandemic, it has become apparent that guests draw greater comfort in outdoor experiences, I see a greater demand for outside patio and food and beverage service.”

As society begins to reopen and communities begin to stabilize, time can only tell precisely how clubs will continue to evolve their operations, whether that be scaling back pandemic-relevant operations or doubling-down on new services and efficiencies.  Evident in our work with clients are significant efforts to reorganize club leaders, reevaluate operations, and retool plans for a successful future in the new normal.  Here are a few highlights of efforts clubs are making for the next normal:

 

  • Reinvigoration of governance processes and engagement of leaders to ensure alignment between boards and club strategic plans.
  • Renewed surveying of members to keep a pulse on how sentiments have changed from pre-pandemic, during pandemic, and currently as communities stabilize.
  • Enhanced adoption and application of electronic voting as clubs reevaluate membership structures, governing documents, and operating policies amidst “displaced” members.
  • Reconfiguring of budgets, capital plans, and long-range financial models.
  • Refinement and advancement of membership marketing strategies, tactics, and materials.
  • Tightening relationships between facility planning, capital improvements, and member communications campaigns.

Running Toward Change

This article continues a series of communications from GGA Partners to help private club leaders address challenges confronting their businesses and their employees because of the global health crisis. Today, Henry DeLozier suggests that change on a massive scale is no longer something that should surprise us.

Technology’s tools give clubs a way to prepare for the new normal.

We’re hearing a lot these days about the “new normal” and how the coronavirus has forever changed the ways we work, shop, travel and interact.

But wasn’t it not long ago that we were talking about another new normal? Remember the new normal that followed the financial crisis of 2007-2008, which led to a global recession? That pivot from the previously abnormal to a new normal ushered in more stringent guidelines for financial institutions and in a much larger sense ushered out the sense of trust we had in many other institutions and the people who ran them.

And although the term was not yet in vogue, didn’t the seismic shift from analog to digital – the tipping point came in 2002, when the world began storing more information in digital than in analog format – qualify as a new normal?

All of which led some creative soul to design a bumper sticker that said it all: Change Happens. (You may remember it with a synonym for change.) The most adaptable among us learn to deal with change; the most successful turn it into a competitive advantage. How do they do it?

Don’t be surprised – be prepared.

When he first heard Bob Dylan’s 1965 anthem “Like a Rolling Stone,” Bruce Springsteen said, “[It] sounded like somebody’d kicked open the door to your mind.” With that song, Dylan changed how artists thought about making music. Major change often seems to arrive suddenly – with the speed of a stone rolling down a steep hill – and without warning. Its capriciousness makes us anxious. But if we know it’s coming, we shouldn’t be surprised. We should be prepared.

An embrace of the tools that technology now affords us is an important key to our preparation.

Derek Johnston, a partner in our firm, says although club leaders could not have anticipated the pandemic, they could have been better prepared.

“Many clubs were ill-prepared to quickly analyze the potential impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, to run initial scenarios, to easily gather more information, to test their hypotheses with their membership and, ultimately, set a course of action,” he says.

That is not to say that clubs have responded poorly. On the contrary, club leaders have performed in truly admirable fashion. Many clubs just had to work much harder than those that had already implemented data analytics processes and plug-and-play dashboarding tools, like MetricsFirst or continuous member feedback tools like MemberInsight.

“Some club leaders still question the need to bother with data analytics tools and programs. This misunderstanding is simply misguided,” Johnston says, adding that the term “analytics” seems to intimidate some and conjure visions of data overload and complexity. Another fallacy, Johnston says. “Data analytics, when executed properly, is intended to actually simplify information and present insights in very crisp, clean, and easy to understand ways.”

Ginni Rometty, executive chair of IBM, told Fortune magazine editor Alan Murray, “There is no doubt this [coronavirus] will speed up everyone’s transition to be a digital business.” She identified four areas of impending change: 1) the movement to the cloud; 2) the move toward automation; 3) the overhaul of supply chains, and 4) the movement toward new ways of doing work. Each force will happen in accelerated fashion, she predicts.

Rometty is not alone in her assessment. Almost two out of three respondents to a recent Fortune survey of Fortune 500 CEOs expect technological transformation to accelerate. Doug Merritt, CEO at Splunk, a big-data platform, pointed out two important observations: 1) a rapid digital transformation and 2) the elevated importance of gathering and interrogating data.

Top-performing clubs will similarly leverage the pandemic to implement advanced methods for executing work and providing services. Retooling such routine practices as monthly billings, guest policy tracking, and point-of-sale transactions will happen quickly. Likewise, separating work from jobs will trend even more in the wake of the pandemic.

“Clubs that are actively maintaining both real-time operating dashboards and strategic dashboards, combined with a proper financial model, are taking preemptive steps toward dealing with change,” Johnston says. “When it happens – and we know it will – they will experience far less conflict amongst their management team and their board. Ultimately, their preparation will enable better decisions, faster.”

Tactics for Financial Stewardship in a Crisis (Part 2)

This article continues a series of communications from GGA Partners to help private club leaders address challenges confronting their businesses and their employees as a result of the global health crisis. Today, in the second of two articles discussing financial stewardship, partner and head of transaction advisory, Craig Johnston, outlines information and tactics which should be considered in developing your club’s financial plans in times of crisis.

As businesses across North America begin to re-open, ever-changing social and economic circumstances further complicate the decision-making process, and now more than ever it is imperative that business leaders have access to the critical information which impacts their business.

In the midst of a crisis, we believe prudent financial stewards should embark on a phased approach to financial planning and analysis. The three phases are:

1. Cash Preservation

2. Sustainability

3. Opportunity

The immediate focus should be on cash and cash preservation. The familiar adage Cash is King takes on even greater importance in crisis situations. Next, the focus shifts to reviewing key risks to long-term sustainability and developing plans to reduce and combat those risks. Once a game plan is understood for sustainability, business leaders should explore opportunities to enhance member experience, reduce operating or capital costs, and increase return on investment.

To navigate these three phases, two critical financial platforms are required: a detailed annual budget and a club financial model.

Often these platforms are considered one in the same, but they are not. A detailed annual budget should be designed on a monthly basis and based on agreed upon key performance indicators (KPIs) and specific circumstances for the year. A club financial model should be designed on an annual basis and based on historical and budgeted KPIs as well as other economic inputs. The monthly budget is important to support cash preservation analyses while the financial model supports long-term sustainability scrutiny and enhancement opportunity exploration.

Both platforms should be dynamic, both platforms should encompass all three financial statements, and both platforms are a must-have. By “dynamic”, we mean easily adjustable for various economic and club-specific KPIs and, by “all three”, we mean income statement, cash flow statement and balance sheet. (Yes, a club should set and approve a budget at the outset of every year, but that does not mean the platform it was developed under needs to be static.)

The information required to develop both platforms include:

  • Historical audited financial statements, including notes.
  • Detailed department financial schedules, including breakdown of fixed and variable expenses.
  • Membership information, including counts, fees, attrition rates and sales expectations.
  • Debt agreements and schedules, including covenant calculations, coupon rates and terms.
  • Labour contracts and employment agreements.
  • Supplier and vendor contracts and agreements, including terms and pricing.
  • Capital project listing, including historical expenditures, reserve studies and facilities plans.

The specific tactics under each phase of planning and analysis will vary from club to club, but some predominant examples include:

1. Cash Preservation

a. Analyze current club liquidity: evaluate the club’s current balance sheet, including available cash, receivables and payables based on an up-to-date budget, then leverage the monthly budgets to assess the near-term (three to six months) liquidity based on estimated revenues and expenses.

b. Scenario analysis: complete various scenario analysis within the annual budget platform (designed on a monthly basis) based on potential closure and re-opening scenarios. This requires a realistic evaluation of the impact of each scenario from department managers.

Based on the results of the above, determine if any near-term adjustments (staffing changes, discussions and negotiations with suppliers and lenders) are required for cash preservation.

2. Sustainability

a. Anticipate attrition rates: depending on the timing of annual dues payments, attrition rates during times of crisis can be significant. Running scenario analysis based on various levels of attrition and their impact on the club’s long-term sustainability is essential.

b. Estimate decline in membership sales: some clubs may rely on entrance fees to support operating expenses, or more predominantly capital maintenance expenditures. Evaluating the potential decline in new membership sales over the short and medium-term, and its impact on club sustainability is critical.

Based on the results of the scenario analyses, scrutinize the club’s operating model to address discrepancies between cash inflows and cash outflows. This may require moderate or significant reductions to the club’s operating profile, including hours of operation and levels of high-touch service, for example.

3. Opportunity

The review of enhancement opportunities may come about during the focus on sustainability, as the club looks at unique ways to better align cash outflows with cash inflows. However, for clubs where sustainability is straightforwardly achievable, the focus on opportunity will follow sustainability. Areas of opportunity include:

a. Staffing profile: use times of disruption to consider changes to your management team and right sizing of your staffing profile.

b. Debt re-structuring: meet with the club’s lender(s) to discuss revised terms to the current debt agreements. Interest rates are near all-time lows, and although the numerator on certain coverage ratio calculations has declined, a preferable rate or term may be available.

c. Capital projects: favorable prices may be available on large-scale projects or purchases during times of crises. Consider moving ahead with large-scale projects if the potential savings are meaningful and there is a high degree of confidence in the club’s financial sustainability.

Navigating through crisis in this phased approach – while adhering to the guiding principles of financial stewardship – will help clubs develop financial plans which offer short-term solutions and lasting success.

Celebrating Client Success in Transaction Advisory

Handling complex club transactions can be challenging and, in many ways, celebrating the success of your clients can feel equally challenging and at times unnatural.

For all the right reasons, seldom do such celebrations recognize and truly appreciate each of the obstacles and challenges clients encounter along their path to success.

Indeed, during last year’s successful sale of The Clubs at St. James Plantation, the ownership group scrutinized several options which each brought forth a great deal of complexity. The ownership group was looking for a buyer with a focus on the members and on the long-term sustainability and success of The Clubs. In February of last year they found that in Troon, the largest golf management company in the world, who had managed The Clubs for the previous 12 years.

The transaction ranked among the biggest sales of 2018 and the largest in the private club sector according to Golf Inc. Magazine in their January/February 2019 edition.

For the ownership group, the sale was a tremendous accomplishment and an exemplar of visionary strategic leadership. For GGA, we were humbled by the opportunity to support such a dedicated ownership group during the process and were thrilled with the outcome as it aligned with the quantitative and qualitative aspirations of the owners.

Notably, GGA Partner Derek Johnston was recently recognized as an Adviser of the Year in Golf Inc.’s May/June 2019 magazine for his support on this transaction, the success of which was informed by the deep expertise of Craig Johnston, Director of GGA’s Transaction Advisory practice.

About GGA Transaction Advisory

At GGA we welcome every opportunity to assist our clients in maximizing return on capital and pride ourselves on deliberate consideration of both the quantitative and qualitative aspects of every transaction.

GGA’s core Transaction Advisory services include:

  • Buy and sell-side advisory
  • Investor exit strategy development
  • Business valuation and modelling
  • Due diligence (commercial, financial and operational)
  • Developer-to-member transition planning and facilitation

Follow these links to learn more about Derek Johnston, Craig Johnston, and GGA’s Transaction Advisory practice.

A special thank you to Jack Crittenden, Jim Trageser, and Keith Carter at Golf Inc. Magazine, the leading news source for golf course developers and owners worldwide.

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