Mid-Year Predictions for the Second Half of 2021

At the start of the new year and in the spirit of planning, the thought leaders at GGA Partners sat down to predict what we believed to be coming throughout the year and shared our 2021 Predictions on the Shape of the Next Normal. Now, halfway through 2021 with the spring season in the books and summer underway, we reconvened GGA leaders for a mid-year check-in on predictions for the latter half of the year.

1. Ensuring fair and equitable access to amenities remains top of mind, especially on the golf course

A trending topic throughout the industry is golf’s demand surge and how long it will sustain, much has been written on this point and those who are closely watching rounds played metrics anticipate a clearer reading by the end of the summer.

Stephen Johnston, GGA’s founding partner, expects that private clubs will see the surge continue to elevate rounds played by members which will likely increase issues relating to compaction of tee traffic and accessibility.  He predicts the benchmark regarding average number of rounds per member to be higher by approximately 10% following the pandemic and also increased golf course utilization by members’ spouses and family members.  Both factors will create a greater demand for tee times at private clubs.

Johnston believes some clubs may need to consider permitting round play by fivesomes instead of foursomes, potentially catalyzing logistical challenges such as a greater need for single-rider power carts in order to maintain speed of play at the same rate as foursomes with all players using power carts. For club managers and course operators, this entails an increased need for current and detailed evaluation of the benefits of membership and the relationship between playing privileges and the practical ability to book a tee time and get on-course.

2. Effective demand management is key and will shift from agile, flexible approaches to new operating standards as demand stabilizes

During the pandemic and throughout 2020, many golf, club, and leisure businesses recognized the increased need to more accurately and routinely measure the utilization of amenities, adapting operations management to react quickly to change.

Craig Johnston, head of GGA’s transaction advisory practice, anticipates an evolution in this one-day-at-a-time, agile monitoring approach into a new and more formalized standard of operating procedures.  “At the start of 2021, we said we would see clubs provide flexibility and experiment with various operational changes,” he explained.  “With the pandemic feeling like it’s steadily moving toward the rear-view mirror, members will be expecting clubs to begin instituting the ‘new normal’ operations and the data compiled by clubs in the first half of the year will be critical to deciding on the new normal.”

Johnston believes that membership demand will continue to be strong through the second half of the year and that it is likely utilization will reduce marginally as members begin travelling again for work and social obligations.  Even with a marginal reduction in utilization, demand for private club services will remain strong and will continue to put pressure on capacity and access in most clubs.

Senior Partner Henry DeLozier encourages club and facility operators to embrace short-term continuations of high demand while keeping an eye on the future and the non-zero probability of a demand shift in the coming years.  “Clubs must create pathways to sustain demand while navigating utilization volume.  It is unwise to place hard or irreversible limitations on capacity while clubs are at historic maximums for demand and usage,” cautioned DeLozier. “Clubs will do well to establish a clear understanding of demand and utilization to enable innovative programs which serve to fill periods of low demand in the future.”

3. Ongoing uncertainty about the pandemic’s long-term impact on club finances will increase the review and reevaluation of club financial projections to ensure sustained budget flexibility

While data regarding utilization, participation, and engagement throughout the summer months continues to be captured and consolidated, business leaders should not delay their financial planning and instead get to work on reevaluating finances and updating their future forecasts.

“Now is the time to review, evaluate, and reset club debt levels,” emphasized Henry DeLozier. “Clubs need to recast financial projections based upon elevated joining/initiation fees arising from high demand.”

In support of alacrity in financial planning, DeLozier notes that labor shortages spurred by the pandemic will increase payroll-related costs at a material level. He also predicts that comprehensive risk review is needed at most clubs to evaluate possible impacts arising from cyber-crime and/or declining club revenues during 2022.

Beyond internal shake-ups in utilization or operations, club leaders should be anticipating external impacts that could impact their financial plans.  A hypothetical example raised by DeLozier is if the U.S. economy were to become more inflationary.  In such a circumstance he believes clubs would see an increase in the costs of labor and supplies which would necessitate increases in member dues and fees, a deceleration of new-member enrollments as consumer confidence dips, and a slight slow-down in housing demand.

Right now, uncertainty remains with respect to the virus as well as the resulting economic impact from the pandemic. From a financial standpoint, clubs will do well to advance their forward planning while retaining budget elasticity.  “It will be imperative for clubs and boards to build flexibility into their budgets and agility into their operations,” added Craig Johnston.

4. Existing governance practices, policies, and procedures will be revisited, refurbished, and reinvigorated

A litany of new ways of operating and governing the club arose as a result of the pandemic, some of which suggest an efficacy that can be sustained in a post-pandemic environment.  Essential to assimilating these adaptions into new standards of procedure is a review of existing governance practices and the documentation which supports them.

“At a time when boards can measure the full range of financial performance metrics, updating club governing documents is a primary board responsibility,” noted Henry DeLozier.  “Board room succession planning must be formalized to prepare clubs for the inevitable downturn from record high utilization.”

In considering the nearly overnight adoption of technology tools to enable remote meetings and board-level deliberations, partner Michael Gregory noted a substantial increase in the use of technology tools that go beyond virtual Zoom meetings.  “The pandemic has allowed clubs to test online voting,” he explained.  “For many clubs, once things return to normal, their bylaws won’t allow for the continued execution of online voting unless they make changes.”

“We have seen the adoption and implementation of online voting to be a huge success for the clubs who have tried it for the first time,” said Gregory. “Members love it, it’s easy, it’s convenient, it leads to higher participation from the membership, and many clubs are in the process of changing their governing documents to allow for online voting as a result.”  The challenges and opportunities of employing online voting are detailed in our piece on taking club elections digital, which features a downloadable resource that can be shared among club boards.

5. In human resources, expect to see deeper reevaluations of compensation structures and employee value propositions

Weighing in from across the pond, Rob Hill, partner and managing director of GGA’s EMEA office in Dublin, predicts that club leaders will face bigger challenges in human resources throughout the remainder of 2021.

The first of three particular items he called out is a reevaluation of compensation.  “Making decisions about employee pay is among the biggest challenges facing club leaders in the wake of the coronavirus shutdown,” stated Hill. “As they begin compensation planning for the rest of the year and into 2022, these leaders not only have to consider pay levels, but also the suitability of their mission and operating model to thrive in a post-pandemic world.”

Citing his recent experiences in the European market, Hill shared that club leaders are challenged with finding new ways to operate smarter and more efficiently, while also looking for innovative ways to implement sturdy, low-cost solutions that their employees will love.  Which leads to his second point, that there will be a renewed emphasis on what employees love and how clubs, as employers, can provide an enhanced value proposition for their employees.

“As employees get back to work onsite, employers are finding that what their people value from the employment relationship has changed,” Hill explained.  “Where pay has been viewed as largely transactional in the past, clubs may need to provide new types of benefits, especially programs that provide more flexibility, financial security, and empowerment to retain and motivate their people.”

Lastly, there is likely to be considerable movement of talent over the coming year brought on by employees’ new work-life ambitions and financial imperatives, said Hill, “As demand for their skills and experience grows, the very best talent will seek out employers that demonstrate they view employees not as costs but as assets and reflect this in their approach to compensation.”

Recalling our start-of-year prediction that the movement of people and relocation of companies will reshape markets, partner Craig Johnston added, “The relocation of people continues to be a prominent trend and one that is likely to continue in the second half of the year.”  For club employers, it’s not just the changing physical locations which impact the cost and supply of labor, but also the expectations of employees as they seek out competitive new roles and work experiences.

6. The repurposing and reimagining of club facilities, amenities, and member-use areas will continue

The pandemic pushed to the fore the need for clubs to adapt their facilities to match changes in the ways members use and enjoy their clubs.  A combination of practical evolutions for health and safety and circumstantial evolutions drawn from widespread ability for members to work remotely created increased desire for clubs to offer more casual outdoor dining options and spaces to enable members to conduct work while at the club.

Partner Stephen Johnston believes these sentiments will continue to near-term facility improvements at clubs.  “With more flexibility in the workplace and members working from home periodically, there will be a need at the club for members to do work or take calls before their tee time or their lunch date,” he said.  “It has been evident for some time that members generally prefer to enjoy outdoor dining and since, throughout the pandemic, it has become apparent that guests draw greater comfort in outdoor experiences, I see a greater demand for outside patio and food and beverage service.”

As society begins to reopen and communities begin to stabilize, time can only tell precisely how clubs will continue to evolve their operations, whether that be scaling back pandemic-relevant operations or doubling-down on new services and efficiencies.  Evident in our work with clients are significant efforts to reorganize club leaders, reevaluate operations, and retool plans for a successful future in the new normal.  Here are a few highlights of efforts clubs are making for the next normal:

 

  • Reinvigoration of governance processes and engagement of leaders to ensure alignment between boards and club strategic plans.
  • Renewed surveying of members to keep a pulse on how sentiments have changed from pre-pandemic, during pandemic, and currently as communities stabilize.
  • Enhanced adoption and application of electronic voting as clubs reevaluate membership structures, governing documents, and operating policies amidst “displaced” members.
  • Reconfiguring of budgets, capital plans, and long-range financial models.
  • Refinement and advancement of membership marketing strategies, tactics, and materials.
  • Tightening relationships between facility planning, capital improvements, and member communications campaigns.

Webinar 5/5: The Most Underrated Club Metrics

Jonas Club Software & GGA Partners to Co-host a Webinar Revealing the Most Underrated Club Metrics

Markham, ON Canada – Join Jonas Club Software and GGA Partners, the trusted advisors to the golf, private club, and leisure industries, in a special webinar event, discussing the most underrated club metrics that clubs should be paying attention to in 2021. With private clubs undergoing so much transformation in the last 12 months, many clubs are experiencing trends of rapid change and, as a result, require a plan to monitor membership like never before.

Focusing on metrics to help club management make more informed decisions, the session will cover metrics focusing on membership demographics, risk, spending and utilization. The session will be co-presented by Trevor Coughlan, VP of Marketing and Mark Darling, Product Manager – MetricsFirst, of Jonas Club Software, and Derek Johnston, Partner and Martin Tzankov, Senior Manager of GGA Partners.

The session will take place on Wednesday, May 5th, 2021 at 1:00 P.M. ET.

If you would like to attend this 45-minute session, registration is available for free by visiting: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6315081732484665869.

Register for free →

 

About Jonas Club Software

Jonas Club Software helps clubs thrive by focusing on the creation of exceptional experiences. These experiences are delivered through industry-leading services, integrated applications, innovative technology, and long-term partnerships with the clubs we serve.

Over 2,300 clubs in more than 20 countries, with memberships ranging from 20 to 20,000, utilize Jonas Club Software technology. With applications ranging from Accounting to Retail Point of Sale, Tee Time Management, Court & Class Booking, Dining Reservations, websites and Mobile Apps, Jonas Club Software is the standout choice for clubs driven to offer exceptional member experiences. For more details visit www.jonasclub.com.

 

About GGA Partners

GGA Partners™ is an international consulting firm and trusted advisor to many of the world’s most successful golf courses, private clubs, resorts, and residential communities. We are dedicated to helping owners, asset managers, club and community leaders, investors and real estate developers tackle challenges, achieve objectives, and maximize asset performance.

Established in 1992 as the KPMG Golf Industry Practice, our global team of experienced professionals leverage in-depth business intelligence and proprietary global data to deliver impactful strategic solutions and lasting success. GGA Partners has offices in Toronto, Ontario, Phoenix, Arizona, Bluffton, South Carolina, and Dublin, Ireland. For more information, please visit ggapartners.com.

 

Media Contact:
Trevor Coughlan
Vice President, Marketing
Jonas Club Software
Trevor.Coughlan@jonasclub.com
1-888-789-9073

RelationSHIFTS: COVID-19 and a ‘New Normal’ for Clubs

This article continues a series of communications from GGA Partners to help private club leaders address challenges confronting their businesses and their employees as a result of the global health crisis. Today, Laurie Martin (Founder/CEO, Life Interrupted Inc.) offers several tips for club leaders to consider while navigating the ‘new normal’.

As a leader, you have made it through the initial weeks running on adrenaline as you and your organization have had to pivot quickly to address the COVID crisis. While you continue adapting to your makeshift workspaces at home, and preparing to keep your people safe, the realities of emotional, physical and psychological upheaval are revealed

Over the past few weeks, I have noticed a common thread of stresses related to adaptation and uncertainty. Phrases like: “Since I’ve been home, I have never worked this hard”, “I need stress-debriefing techniques to keep my sanity” and “I can’t stand this!” demonstrate the need to acknowledge the tensions in our surroundings and start a conversation about finding stability and hope.

Now, clubs around the world are moving into position to open slowly and methodically. As a leader, your fears and concerns for employees and their families, members, and the general public are heightened. The focus has been on best practices to deter or stop COVID-19 from coming to the club.  Now, employees have become essential workers and their stress levels will be heightened.

Leaders will need to create best safety practices that work for their clubs.  They will also need to provide a support system to help employees and members deal with the enormous changes of the new normal at clubs.  Employees will be looking at each other wearing appropriate personal protection equipment and following a series of new safety protocols and wonder if the masks or shields will protect them. Members will now be playing their sport very differently and question whether the club will ever be the same again.

There’s no question, this pandemic has created a different way for clubs to operate now and likely in the future.  The templates of tasks and best practices that clubs around the world have received are only a small part of what employees and leaders need to consider.  Each club is unique, with its own practices and services. As a leader, you will have to determine what works best for the club. You may consider to have a second opinion from an external professional working in risk management/health and safety professional guiding you to opening day.

Here are some tips to consider while coping with the new normal at your club:

Embrace the new normal

Our professional and personal lives have shifted and it is important to accept the reality that things will never go back to the way they were. Create new plans, or enhance previous plans and enjoy the freedom to be creative.  Use the skills and knowledge you’ve accumulated through this crisis.

Choose your thoughts

If we do not choose positive thoughts, we will face sadness and experience that “I give up” feeling. Try to remain optimistic and choose thoughts that will motivate you. You must believe you can do something, or you won’t even try. You can overcome negative thoughts with positive ones.

Stay connected

Fear isolates and distances people. As a leader and an entrepreneur, it is your responsibility to keep your family, friends, employees, colleagues, board of directors, and members connected and updated. Communication, collaboration and transparency are key during this difficult time. Promote video chats, share resources, reach out and ask how everyone is doing, encourage more casual interactions, and spread optimism. This is also an opportunity to learn new things to enhance your knowledge and streamline your business.

Share your feelings

It is beneficial to demonstrate the emotional side of your leadership, especially in tough times where members, friends, family, and colleagues are anxious or uncertain of the impact of COVID-19 on the economy. Now is the time to reach out and ask how others are dealing with working from home or with the stress of COVID-19. It’s also good to share your concerns. Sharing your own vulnerability will help others to do the same. Remember, we are all experiencing similar feelings of grief, stress, uncertainty and living day by day.

Accept diversity

It is important to remember that each one of us has a unique home life. Our lifestyles, habits and priorities all differ, which is coming to light as we collaborate from our homes. Some may be experiencing additional challenges such as financial burdens, potential job loss, death of a loved one, divorce, fear of going back to work, etc., and it is important to be mindful of this. Additionally, our methods of coping differ, so be gentle and try to keep an open mind.  It’s important to create time out for yourself too.

Stay away from deception and misinformation

There is a great deal of fear associated with the COVID-19 pandemic and, unfortunately, this fear has triggered a wave of insecurity, and misinformation. It is important to distance yourself from this when possible. Ignore negativity and work from facts not rumours. Educate yourself by reading reputable, peer-reviewed sources and recognize and address your own fears. Contact an external resource you know in the club industry that provides education and tools that can be resourceful.

Set boundaries

If you live with others in your home, working in tight quarters can cause increased stress nd frustration. It is important to establish boundaries. Determine who is going to be in which room, when, and set an agreed time limit for how long.  This will help minimize disruptions.  Having a clear conversation about how to reasonably share your home space will ultimately reduce conflict. You may want to consider setting boundaries on screen time and media exposure which can reduce the feelings of being overwhelmed and help you gain control of your situation.

Create a routine

If you are working from home, building a routine will help you foster a sense of normalcy and allow you to stay on track. Wake up at your usual time, get dressed as you would normally, have your coffee and breakfast, get your kids ready, stick to some type of exercise regimen. Create a good night-time routine and stay away from reading emails before bed.  This will keep your immune system healthy and boost your resilience.

Take breaks

Taking breaks throughout your workday is pivotal to productivity. Take a 5-10-minute break every hour to stretch, take deep breaths, drink water, have a healthy snack or get some fresh air. You should also take some time to have your lunch each day. Support a local business in your area by ordering food through a delivery service.

Practice self-care

As leaders, it is natural to put the needs of your family, employees and members before your own. However, it is important to take care of yourself too. Take care of your body, your mind, and your spirit.  Make time to unwind.  Practising self-care will reduce your stress, clear your mind, and help you to better support and work with others.

Don’t forget hope

While COVID-19 is impacting our daily routines, it is comforting to know that there are still moments of strength that help us realize we can get through this together. Communities coming together, inspiring stories, businesses opening, and people connecting while respecting physical distancing are all signs of hope that we shouldn’t ignore.

A ‘new normal’ for leaders

As leaders, you’ve already felt the stress and emotional upheaval when the clubs were closed down for the pandemic.  Now you get to experience the stress of anticipating when they will open again, and question whether you’re doing everything you can to keep people safe.  Hopefully, leaders are doing their due diligence by taking the templates and customising the best practices and creating policies in place, ordering personal protective equipment and supplies ahead of time.  Asking for a second opinion by reaching out to the services of risk management or health and safety experts familiar with the club industry to guide them to a new normal for pre- and post-opening day.

Although these days are filled with uncertainty and we continue to feel overwhelmed, disconnected and out of control, it is important remember we are all in this together. There will be an end to this pandemic, and we are going to learn a lot about ourselves as leaders and as people.

 

Laurie Martin, CTTS, EPC, founder of Life Interrupted Inc.

She is an innovator with an ability to change the way club leaders think, both professionally and personally, and to enhance their lives.  Laurie brings over 25 years of risk management and crisis education experience, and more than 17,000 hours of accredited frontline experience.  She educates by using a solid process for preparing for any crisis or critical life interruption, before, during and after.  Laurie’s techniques keep leaders and their teams connected, resilient, focused and to stay safe.  All programs provide education credits.  To learn more, contact Laurie at laurie@lifeinterrupted.ca, or, visit lifeinterrupted.ca.

Review of Hurdzan’s Golf and Law

Michael J. Hurdzan, Golf and Law.  Golf Course Safety, Security and Risk Management.  Edited by Ron Whitten.  Hurdzan Golf Publications, Columbus, Ohio.  Hardcover, May 2018, available on Amazon, $65.00. Reviewed by John Strawn, Director, GGA Partners

Michael Hurdzan has designed some of the world’s best golf courses, among them Erin Hills, the US Open venue in Wisconsin, and two of Canada’s most acclaimed courses, The Devil’s Paintbrush and The Devil’s Pulpit.   His impressive portfolio of course designs nestles among a broader range of accomplishments.  Hurdzan has a PhD in environmental plant physiology; following active duty in the US Army, he served in a special forces reserve unit for thirty years, retiring as a Colonel.  Now a Fellow in the American Society of Golf Course Architects, he was ASGCA president in 1984-85.   In partnership with his son, Chris Hurdzan, he leads restorations and renovations of classic courses, such as The Ottawa Hunt and Golf Club, Scioto Country Club in his native Columbus, Ohio, and Vermont’s Burlington Country Club.

Hurdzan is outspoken advocate for sustainable golf development.  He’s delivered hundreds of speeches on best practices in golf operations, highlighting the impact course design has on maintenance.  He’s one of the world’s leading authorities on golf’s environmental impacts.  He’s written a series of books, including a comprehensive treatise entitled Golf Course Architecture, familiarly known as “the modern bible of golf course design.”

Now, with his seventh book, Hurdzan has turned his attention to the intersection of golf and the law, striding into a contentious arena where few non-lawyers have dared to tread.  “I have been shocked,” Hurdzan writes in the introduction to Golf and Law, “that the golf industry, in general, has been so slow or inactive in trying to educate golfers and course operators to make golf and golf courses less hazardous.”

Though not a lawyer, Hurdzan has testified in numerous lawsuits, acquiring knowledge of golf’s legal quandaries firsthand, often sitting in the hot seat as an expert witness subject to cross examination.  He’s testified on behalf of both defendants and plaintiffs.  Golf and Law examines some of those cases, drawing valuable lessons for course managers, superintendents, and private club boards on how to assess and ameliorate risk.

Golf and Law was edited by Ron Whitten, a writer and former prosecutor who abandoned the courtroom years ago to take on the role of golf course architectural editor at Golf Digest, where he established himself as an authoritative voice on design.  Whitten also collaborated with Hurdzan on the early stages of the design of Erin Hills.

But it’s Hurdzan’s voice we hear on the pages of Golf and Law, a clarion call reflecting the authority and presence that’s given his courthouse testimony such persuasive authenticity.  When you’ve learned to give orders that may have deadly consequences, you don’t take risk lightly.

Hurdzan’s book advises course managers and club members to forestall risk by undertaking a prudent, ongoing and realistic assessments of any potential hazards they can identify—and we’re not talking about bunkers here, but rather lake edges, aging trees, blind shots and steep slopes.  He makes a case for modest interventions, above all the use of simple warning signs, but makes it clear that the strongest protection against risk lies in good planning and design.

The number of pages Hurdzan devotes to golf car issues—and he prefers “car” to “cart” because the former implies greater operational risk, and the whole point of Golf and Law is to provide guidance on managing risk on golf courses—may not be surprising, given that more than 15,000 golf car accidents are reported every year.  Although he doesn’t state what proportion of golf-related lawsuits involve cars, from the cases he presents the impression is that cars are golf’s greatest danger.

As in his previous work, Hurdzan’s goal in writing Golf and Law is to make the golf industry better–a safer place for golfers and staff alike, where everyone is alert to the risks inherent in balls traveling at skull-cracking speeds and cars are driven with the risks of operating them clearly in mind.   This book belongs on every prudent club manager and superintendent’s shelf.

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